Classof2028

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Who Is the Class of 2028?

Fourteen years from now, today’s pre-kindergartners will be tomorrow’s high school graduates. What will the landscape of higher education look like? Who will the graduates themselves be? Let’s compare and contrast the experiences of the Class of 2014 with projections for the Class of 2028.

A Smaller Group

The Class of 2028 will be smaller than previous years, proportionately.

During the 2007 recession, fewer children were born, so graduating classes in the mid- to late- 2020s will be smaller, comparatively. (1)

Total U.S. population at time of birth

2014: 265,229,000 in 1996 (2)

2028: 353,276,000 in 2010 (3)

Number of U.S. high school graduates (1)

2014: 3,219,207

2028: 3,251,020

Private schools will be particularly impacted by the change in demographics.

Number of graduates from nonpublic schools (1)

2014: 281,632

2027: 229,210

Variance in the U.S.

Different regions of the country will experience varying rates of growth or decline by the time the Class of 2028 graduates.

Northeastern high school graduates (1)

2014: 608,401

2028: 576,215

Midwestern high school graduates (1)

2014: 716,827

2028: 676,014

Western high school graduates (1)

2014: 748,487

2028: 759,854

Southern high school graduates (1)

2014: 1,142,765

2028: 1,230,247

Diversity is Increasing

In public schools, the number of white non-Hispanic graduates will decrease, while the number of minority graduates will increase. (1)

American Indian/Alaska Native graduates:

2014: 30,076

2028: 35,500

Asian/Pacific Islander graduates

2014: 178,589

2028: 254,044

Black non-Hispanic graduates

2014: 405,165

2028: 417,669

Hispanic graduates

2014: 547,474

2028: 717,570

White non-Hispanic graduates

2014: 1,707,660

2028: 1,530,194

Total public school graduates of all races/ethnicities

2014: 2,868,965

2028: 2,954,977

And non-Hispanic whites will continue to make up the majority of the graduating class, but by a much slimmer margin. (1)

Percentage of non-Hispanic white graduates

2014: 59.5%

2028: 51.8%

Percentage of minority graduates

2014: 40.5%

2028: 48.2%

Looking Ahead to Higher Ed

More students than ever will enter college as nontraditional students. (4)

Students who don’t enter college immediately after high school are considered nontraditional students, and the number of those age 25 and older who are enrolled in college will increase 15.4% between 2014 and 2022. By 2022, that demographic will make up 42.2% of all students enrolled in college.

Number of students enrolled in postsecondary schools in the U.S. (4)

2014: 21,575,000

2022: 23,888,000

Number of students 25 years old and above enrolled in postsecondary schools in the U.S. (4)

2014: 8,723,000

2022: 10,071,000

Colleges of the Future

More students than ever will use the Internet for postsecondary learning. (5)

With the increase in nontraditional students, advances in technology and changing needs of a dynamic population, students may look toward online colleges or e-learning to get the most out of their education.

Number of postsecondary students taking at least one course online (5)

2002: 1,602,970, or 9.6% of total enrollment

2010: 6,142,280 or 31.3% of total enrollment

Percentage of postsecondary students taking at least one course online (5)

2002: 9.6%

2010: 31.3%

Global market for self-paced online learning (6)

2011: $35.6 billion

2016: $51.5 billion

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Sources:
1. http://www.wiche.edu
2. http://www.census.gov
3. http://databank.worldbank.org
4. http://nces.ed.gov
5. http://www.babson.edu
6. http://www.ambientinsight.com

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